Revenue Development and Forecast Performance in aFRR
In the third quarter of 2025, developments in the aFRR markets proved to be noticeably more volatile than in the previous quarter. After a market decline in July and partial stabilization in August, September brought a clear recovery with significantly higher revenues. For our FlexPowerHub customers, this resulted in an overall positive quarterly outcome, characterized by stable bid acceptance rates, solid forecast performance, and clear revenue growth toward the end of the quarter.
In July, both Germany and Austria recorded noticeable declines in aFRR− revenues: in Austria, they were around 38% below the previous month, and in Germany down by 35%. While forecast performance and bid acceptance rates in Austria also weakened slightly, the situation in Germany developed much more positively. Forecast performance improved by more than 7%, and the bid acceptance rate rose to an impressive 97.85%.
In aFRR+, revenues also declined in both countries, though much more moderately. Particularly noteworthy was Austria’s almost perfect forecast performance of 99.87%. In Germany, performance also improved compared to the previous month, accompanied by a slightly increasing bid acceptance rate.
August then brought a cautious recovery in aFRR−. In Austria, revenues rose slightly by 6%, while in Germany the increase was more pronounced at 18%. Forecast performance remained at a good level, while bid acceptance rates in both countries developed steadily or positively. In Austria, it rose to almost 89%, while it remained consistently high at just under 98% in Germany.
In contrast, the downward trend in aFRR+ revenues continued. Nevertheless, both Austria and Germany again achieved increases in bid acceptance rates. In Germany, FlexPowerHub even reached a high of almost 99%. Although forecast performance in both countries declined slightly, it remained overall solid.
September showed a clearly more positive trend in the aFRR markets. In both countries, FlexPowerHub achieved noticeably higher revenues than in the previous months. While developments in Austria remained stable and balanced overall, dynamics in Germany were significantly stronger.
In aFRR−, revenues in Austria rose by around 32% to 13,384€/MW/h, accompanied by a stable bid acceptance rate of 88.33% and a slightly improved forecast performance of 97.31%. In Germany, the increase was even more pronounced at around 44%, reaching 17,242€/MW/h. The bid acceptance rate remained high at 96.11%.
In aFRR+, both countries also achieved significant increases. In Austria, revenues almost doubled to 15,068€/MW/h, while in Germany they likewise nearly doubled compared to August, reaching 16,812€/MW/h. Despite this strong growth, bid acceptance rates in both countries declined slightly, and forecast performance weakened somewhat. Overall, however, FlexPowerHub clearly benefited from the high market dynamics and closed the quarter with a substantial increase in revenues.
Retrieval Rate Forecast – enhancing activation probability prediction in the flexibility market
We are currently developing our new Retrieval Rate Forecast, designed to predict the activation probability accurately for the aFRR energy markets. This provides our customers with another advanced forecasting tool to align their bidding strategies more effectively with current market behaviour, helping them increase revenues while reducing risk.
The project is being carried out as part of a research collaboration and is supported by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG). It is progressing very successfully, and initial results indicate that the new forecasting models represent activation probabilities with significantly higher accuracy. This is particularly beneficial for battery energy storage systems (BESS), whose profitability strongly depends on a reliable assessment of future activations.
With the Retrieval Rate Forecast, we are establishing a new foundation for data-driven market decisions while further expanding the automation and optimization capabilities of FlexPowerHub.
Focus on Multi-Market Optimization
During the last few months, we made further progress in the technical integration of external systems. Our goal is to make automated trading across multiple markets even more efficient and reliable. We are particularly pleased by the success of our collaborations with KISTERS and KYOS, whose expertise adds significant value to our progress in multi-market optimization.
Together with KISTERS, we have developed a solution that maps the entire process from forecasting and flexibility assessment to bid submission in one seamless workflow. The data is transferred directly into our systems, allowing bids to be generated automatically and in real time. This provides operators with greater transparency and enables them to place their assets on the market reliably and with minimal manual effort.
Our partnership with KYOS is also developing very positively. By combining KYOS’s optimization models with our forecasting tools, we are creating a solution that can be used for both the balancing energy and wholesale markets. Integration is achieved through standardized interfaces and can be easily adapted to existing IT infrastructures. Operators of battery storage systems in particular benefit from this approach, as they increasingly seek to participate in multiple markets simultaneously.
Our collaborations give customers the opportunity to trade their flexibilities more precisely and with significantly less effort. By closely linking forecasting, optimization, and automation, we are developing practical solutions that not only deliver strong technical results but have also gained attention beyond our own work, being featured in several industry publications.
