Under ‘MOC Forecasts’ we added new plots to provide you with deeper insights and a more precise analysis of our performance price forecasts. These new analyses are designed to support your decision-making and, if necessary, to facilitate the parameterization of your strategy.
Plot 1: Performance analysis over 30 days
This plot provides an overview of the performance of our AI forecast compared to the market average over a period of 30 days. We calculate the average of the prices received per percentile and compare it with the market average to calculate the performance per percentile. We aim for our best percentile to be above the market average over a given period. The second line (yellow) shows the bid acceptance per percentile over the last 30 days.
Plot 2: Comparison of forecasts (1D vs. 2D)
In this plot, we determine the best percentile that achieved the highest revenue in the last 30 days and also show the performance (as described in Plot 1) for the AI forecast with a lead time of 1 day ahead and 2 days ahead. The direct comparison allows you to quickly recognize the more reliable forecasting methods and identify where adjustments may be necessary to improve the accuracy of the forecast.
Plot 3: Reference impact of all market time units over 30 days
This plot provides a detailed analysis of the actual mark-up for each product time slice over the last 30 days. You can use this plot to see exactly how the forecast accuracy has developed over different time periods and under different market conditions.
The advantages at a glance
- More precise analyses: The detailed performance and comparison plots allow you to better assess the accuracy of our forecasts.
- Better decision-making: The new plots provide valuable insights to help you make informed decisions in the balancing energy market.
- Increased market performance: By continuously monitoring and optimizing the forecasts, you can adjust your market strategy and thus increase your revenues.
