Market development & forecast performance in Q1 2025
The balancing energy market in Germany and Austria was extremely dynamic in the first quarter of 2025. While the negative markets (aFRR-, mFRR-) in particular suffered from falling prices in January and February, the picture changed significantly in March: massive price increases led to significant revenue growth — especially in mFRR- with increases of over 600% (DE) and 330% (AT).
Our AI-based forecasting platform FlexPowerHub was largely able to anticipate and monetise these market fluctuations. Performance was particularly strong in aFRR+, where we achieved stable to rising revenues despite falling marginal prices in some cases — an effect that can be attributed to high acceptance rates (BZQ) of up to 99%. In the negative markets, FPH lagged behind the market average, which is primarily due to slightly falling BZQ and limited bid acceptance despite high price volatility.
The superior performance of our 1-day forecast (1DA ) compared to the 2DA is particularly noteworthy: In all markets, it led to significantly higher acceptance rates and revenues — in individual cases up to +21% more bids accepted.
Overall, it is clear that market volatility remains a key driver,which our short-term forecasts effectively reflect. FPH therefore remains a strong lever for economic optimisation in the capacity market..
More reliable planning: Now new — 3-day-ahead forecast!
We are expanding our range of forecasts! In addition to our tried-and-tested 1-day and 2-day-ahead forecasts, we are now also offering you a 3-day-ahead forecast. This gives you even more accuracy in your planning and allows you to manage your energy portfolios more precisely.
Your benefits at a glance:
- More lead time: Better strategic decisions thanks to early market information.
- Optimised trading strategies: Benefit from early information to take more targeted action and minimise risks.
- Greater flexibility: Avoid unnecessary costs due to short-term adjustments by utilising your capacities in a more targeted manner.
- Seamless integration: The 3-Day-Ahead forecast complements our existing forecasting models and can be easily integrated into your processes.
- Better planning on weekends and public holidays: With the 3DA-AI forecast, you benefit from better performance three days in advance than with a most-recent forecast — ideal for optimised planning on public holidays and weekends.
With this extension, we can provide you with even better support in making reliable decisions and optimising your energy procurement.
Do you have any questions or would you like to use the new forecast directly? Contact us – we will be happy to advise you!
