The advantages of the 1DA forecast over the 2DA forecast can be demonstrated on both the Austrian and German aFRR markets. We have implemented a special dashboard on our website where monthly updates are published.
Comparison of revenues on the Austrian aFRR
Comparison of revenues on the German aFRR
A comparison of the yields on the Austrian aFRR market shows that these are higher for the 1DA forecast than for the 2DA forecast on both the negative (15.65%) and positive (13.56%) markets. The advantage is particularly clear at the 50th percentile on the negative market in Austria (21.43%) and at the 90th percentile on the negative market in Germany (43.83%).
Comparison of Bid Acceptances on the Austrian aFRR
Comparison of Bid Acceptances on the German aFRR
Bids calculated according to the 1DA forecast are also awarded 17% and 5.6% more frequently on the Austrian market compared to the 2DA forecast. A similar trend can be observed on the German market, where the increase is 23.6% and 18.7% respectively. Regarding the frequency of awards, it can be seen that the bids calculated according to the AI forecast are awarded more frequently on the German balancing energy market. The most significant difference is most clearly visible on the German negative aFRR.
These results indicate that the 1DA forecast is superior to the 2DA forecast on both markets, with the advantage being most pronounced on the German positive aFRR market.
