We have invested considerable efforts in improving our forecasting models during the winter months. The developer hours invested have led to a significant increase in our forecasting ability and thus support your strategic decisions.
For the performance of the forecasts for the months January to May 2024, we are looking in particular at the 1 day-ahead forecast for the 50% quantile in the positive and negative capacity market. The results show that our AI forecast is more favorable compared to the benchmark.
In the Austrian negative aFRR market, an average of 97.41% of the bids calculated according to the AI forecast were awarded, which corresponds to an improvement of 14.23% compared to the benchmark. In the positive aFRR market, there was an improvement of 4.45%.
A comparison of the optimized AI forecast with the benchmark for the German aFRR market shows improvements of 44% in the negative and 27.2% in the positive capacity market.
These results illustrate the effectiveness of the AI forecast and its superiority over the benchmark in both markets and countries. The developer hours invested have led to a significant increase in forecast accuracy and a better basis for your future strategic decisions.
